allow access to 00 numbers or these calls may be billed. . approach is taken by the NBER business cycle dating committee.1 The latter. Business Cycles, GDP and Unemployment | ResearchGate, the professional network FROM NBER BUSINESS CYCLE DATING COMMITTEE AND THE BBQ AND It identifies the same number of peaks and troughs as the BBQ algorithm. Business Cycle Dating Committee Members. Robert Hall, Chair -- NBER Research Associate and Professor, Stanford University Martin Feldstein -- President.
The following period is an expansion. How long does the Committee expect the recession to last?
The Committee does not forecast. How is the Committee's membership determined? The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee. Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area? No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.
The need for a business cycle dating committee
Why does the Committee not date recessions for individual countries? Is it possible that the EU area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not?
The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently.
Note that since October the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area.NBER Says U.S. Economic Recession Ended in June 2009: Video
It is thus possible that the EU-area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries. For instance, Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany. A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the Committee's releases since its creation.
The need for a business cycle dating committee - Livemint
The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. What does a BCDC do? A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc.
It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy. Timely identification of economic contraction and its severity allows policymakers to intervene, and thereby reduce its amplitude and duration. In addition, firms can re-evaluate projections of sales and profits, and the consumers their purchasing and investment plans, based on information on transitions to new business cycle phases.
NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization conducting economic research and regarded as authoritative by both academic researchers and the public at large.
The committee was created in and has been chaired by Robert Hall from Stanford University since its inception. The committee waits long enough so that the existence of a peak or trough is not in doubt and does not follow a fixed time rule. CEPR dates the business cycle for the euro area as a whole and not for any individual country.
Although the countries in the euro area have adopted a common monetary policy sincecountries have heterogeneous institutions and policies.
Hence, some of the criteria of dating business cycles for CEPR differ from those for the NBER, although similar definitions of a recession are adopted by both these organizations.
By maintaining a chronology of business cycles, India will be able to better monitor the economy. A BCDC can also maintain an index of coincident, leading and lagging indicators for the Indian economy.
Currently, India relies mostly on individual studies for the dating of business cycles. The Reserve Bank of India RBI set up a working group of economic indicators in and a technical advisory group TAG on the development of leading indicators for the Indian economy inboth under the chairmanship of R. The working group proposed a standing committee for business cycle analysis.